The first 90 days of any new project are usually a blur of excitement and terror. You have an idea, you might have a landing page, and if you are lucky, you have a few people clicking around. But there is a nagging question that keeps founders up at night: "Is this actually working, or am I just busy?"
Most people answer that question with vanity metrics. They look at total signups, page views, or social media mentions. These numbers feel good because they usually go up, but they are often lying to you. You can have 10,000 signups and a business that is fundamentally broken if none of those people ever come back or pay a cent.
If you want to know if your idea has legs, you need to track the metrics that show the engine is actually turning. You need a KPI tree that connects your big goal to the small things you do every day.
Why vanity metrics are dangerous for early-stage projects
A vanity metric is anything that makes you look good but doesn't help you make a decision.
Imagine you launch a new app. You get featured on a tech blog and 5,000 people sign up in 24 hours. Your "Total Users" chart looks like a hockey stick. You feel like a genius. But if you look closer, only 5 of those people actually used the core feature, and 0 came back the next day.
In this scenario, "Total Users" is a lie. It suggests growth where there is only a temporary spike.
Real metrics—often called "actionable metrics"—are different. They tell you what to do next. If your "Day 1 Retention" is 2%, you know you have a product problem. If your "Conversion to Paid" is 0%, you know you have a pricing or value proposition problem. These numbers are often small and painful to look at, but they are the only ones that matter in the first 90 days.
Building your KPI tree
A KPI tree is a simple way to visualize how your business works. At the very top, you have one "North Star" metric. This is the single most important number for your business right now. Everything else in the tree should branch out from that one number.
For example, if you are building a subscription service, your North Star might be Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR).
To grow MRR, you need two things:
- New customers
- Retained customers
To get new customers, you need:
- Traffic to your site
- A high conversion rate from visitor to signup
- A high conversion rate from signup to paid
By breaking it down like this, you can see exactly where the "leaks" are. If your traffic is high but signups are low, you don't need more ads; you need a better landing page. If signups are high but paid conversions are low, you might need to rethink your paywall.
If you are still in the "is this even worth building" phase, you might want to start with a Brainstorming Partner to narrow down which model you are actually pursuing before you commit to a specific set of numbers.
Specific KPI sets by business model
Not every business should track the same things. Here is how I would break down the first 90 days for three common models.
The SaaS starter pack (B2B or B2C)
In SaaS, retention is the only thing that matters long-term. If you can't keep users, you are just pouring water into a leaky bucket.
For your North Star, look at active usage of the "aha moment" feature (e.g., if you are a task manager, it's "tasks completed per week"). Then track your Day 1 and Day 7 retention to see if people actually come back. You should also monitor "time to value"—how many minutes does it take a new user to do the thing the app is for? Finally, watch the conversion from free trial to paid.
The E-commerce or Marketplace starter pack
Marketplaces are tricky because you have to balance supply and demand.
The biggest number here is Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) or simply the number of successful transactions. To move that number, you need to watch your search-to-purchase ratio. Of the people looking for something, how many found it and bought it? You also need to track liquidity, which is the percentage of listings that get a booking or sale within a week. Don't forget the repeat purchase rate; you want to know if buyers are coming back or if every sale is a one-off.
The Content or Ad-based starter pack
Here, the goal is attention and habit.
Total minutes spent on site per week is your best bet for a North Star. To keep that growing, track your pages per session—are they reading one article and leaving, or "rabbit-holing"? Your newsletter signup rate is also vital since it's your best way to "own" the audience. Lastly, track return frequency to see how many times an average reader visits in 30 days.
If these feel overwhelming to set up manually, you can use a KPI Generator to get a more tailored list based on your specific niche.
Walkthrough: Stress testing your metrics
Setting goals is easy. Setting realistic goals is hard. This is where most founders get into trouble. They decide they want 1,000 customers in 90 days but don't realize that with a 1% conversion rate, they need 100,000 visitors.
Before you start building, you should run your assumptions through the Idea Stress Tester.
Here is how I would use it to stress test a new idea:
- Input your core assumption: "I can get 500 people to pay $20/month for a specialized SEO tool for florists."
- Look at the feedback on acquisition: The tool might point out that there are only about 30,000 florists in your target region. If you need 500 to pay, you need a huge percentage of the total market to even see your site.
- Adjust your KPI tree: Based on that feedback, you might realize your "Traffic" input metric is the biggest risk. You shift your focus from building features to finding where florists hang out online.
- Simulate the numbers: Use the tool to see what happens if your churn is 10% instead of 2%. Suddenly, that 500-customer goal looks much harder because you have to replace 50 people every single month just to stay flat.
This kind of reality check saves months of wasted effort. It turns a "feeling" into a set of numbers you can actually track.
Once you have your numbers straight, you might want to look at a Site Blueprint to make sure your website's architecture actually supports the conversions you are tracking in your tree.
When this won't help
KPIs are a management tool, not a magic wand. There are times when tracking metrics can actually be a distraction.
If you have zero users, you don't need a KPI tree. You need to talk to ten people.
Metrics are for when you have enough data to see a pattern. If you are in the "pre-product" phase, your only metric is "number of conversations with potential customers." Don't spend a week setting up a complex dashboard for a product that doesn't exist yet.
Also, be careful not to let the metrics dictate your vision too early. If you are trying something truly new, the "standard" metrics might look bad for a long time. Jeff Bezos famously didn't care about profit for years because he was tracking a different metric: free cash flow and customer trust. If you are doing something revolutionary, make sure you are tracking the right things for your mission, not just what a blog post tells you.
FAQ
How many KPIs should I track?
Keep it small. I recommend one North Star and three to five input metrics. If you track 20 things, you will end up ignoring all of them.
What is a "good" retention rate?
It depends entirely on your industry. A "good" retention for a social media app is very different from a "good" retention for a tax software that people only use once a year. Look for industry benchmarks, but focus more on whether your own number is improving month-over-month.
When should I change my North Star?
Usually, you only change it when your business enters a new phase. In the first 90 days, your North Star might be "Activation" (getting people to use the product). Once you prove people want it, your North Star might shift to "Retention" or "Revenue."
Should I share these metrics with my team?
Yes. Everyone on the team should know what the North Star is and how their specific work affects one of the input metrics. It helps people say "no" to features that don't move the needle.
Is it okay if my metrics are zero for the first month?
Yes. The "first 90 days" includes the time it takes to get to your first user. The point of the tree is to give you a map so that when you do get that first user, you know exactly what to look at.
Moving forward
Tracking metrics shouldn't feel like a chore. It should feel like a relief. Instead of wondering if you are making progress, you can look at a simple set of numbers and know for sure.
Start by picking your North Star. Then, find the two or three things that have to happen for that number to go up. Build your tree, stay honest about the results, and don't be afraid to pivot if the data shows your assumptions were wrong.
The first 90 days are for learning. The KPIs are just the language you use to read the lessons.